AMS 268 Advanced Bayesian

Noninformative Nonparametric Bayesian Estimation of Quantiles

In 1981 Rubin introduced the Bayesian bootstrap and argued that it was the natural Bayesian analogue to the usual bootstrap. We show here that when estimating a population quantile in a nonparametric problem it yields estimators that are often preferred to the natural naive estimators based on the order statistic. AMS 1980 Subject Classification: 62G05, 62C15 and 62G30

AMS 206: Classical and Bayesian Inference

Pushing the limits of AMS radiocarbon dating with improved Bayesian data analysis

An improved version of the CAR model, the Bayesian data-analysis model for AMS, is presented. Measurement error is taken to be Poisson distributed, improving the analysis for samples with only a few counts. This in turn enables pushing the limit of radiocarbon measurements to lower concentrations. On the computational side, machine drift is described with a vector of parameters and hence the us...

Bayesian Statistical Inference on Elliptical Matrix Distributions

In this paper we are concerned with Bayesian statistical inference for a class of elliptical distributions with parameters + and 7. Under a noninformative prior distribution, we obtain the posterior distribution, posterior mean, and generalized maximim likelihood estimators of + and 7. Under the entropy loss and quadratic loss, the best Bayesian estimators of 7 are derived as well. Some applica...

A Remixed Bayesian Network Based Algorithm for Flight Delay Estimating

A new Bayesian Network algorithm is proposed in this paper. When seeking more accurate results, this new algorithm, Negotiating Method with Competition and Redundancy (NMCR), has bigger scale in structure than other network models we proposed. Time needed for network training and speed in testing show that NMCR works well in estimating of arrival flight delay, especially in flight chains mainly...